The hottest photovoltaic market has entered the bu

The photovoltaic market has entered the buyer's era of "supply far exceeds demand"

new energy photovoltaic enterprises used to making rapid progress have seen "a fall" in the first half of this year, with shipments and product prices both falling. The reason is that the photovoltaic market has entered the buyer era of "supply far exceeds demand", and the industrial reshuffle has suddenly started. Recognizing the causes of the rapid reversal of supply and demand and grasping the law of industrial development is undoubtedly the fundamental basis for local governments to formulate investment policies and industry enterprises to plan development strategies

the rapid switch between supply and demand led to a reshuffle

from 2010 to 2011, China's photovoltaic industry experienced a huge fluctuation

throughout 2010, due to the strong market demand, China's photovoltaic industry expanded at a super high speed. According to the statistics of photointernational, a German authoritative photovoltaic magazine, China's photovoltaic cell output reached 13 gigawatts in 2010, an increase of 173% over 2009

however, photovoltaic modules are still a product with commercial value relying on government electricity price subsidies. It is the enthusiasm of European and American countries to develop clean energy that has fostered local commercial applications with government stickers, making 95% of China's photovoltaic modules find an export market. Generally speaking, the photovoltaic industry is a market economy under the control of policies, so it will be affected by two factors: one is the influence of policy orientation, and the other is the influence of the law of market economy

in March of 2011, Italy, the country with the largest increase in photovoltaic demand last year, suddenly abandoned the inherent photovoltaic electricity price subsidy mechanism and no longer clarified the electricity price subsidy, which greatly increased the uncertainty of photovoltaic power station construction

in addition, major European photovoltaic power generation markets such as Germany, Spain and Italy have successively reduced subsidies and preferential policies for photovoltaic power generation. Czech Republic, one of the fastest-growing national markets, has put forward a series of "punishment plans" for its domestic foam, which has also entered the 3 yuan pioneer's past fixture 1, which generally adopts the investment of mechanical locking body production line photovoltaic power station. This plan includes the imposition of 26% of "solar energy tax"

fireenergy of Funeng group is one of the largest photovoltaic distributors in Europe. Liu Jiayong, CEO of the group, said that from the second half of 2009 to the whole year of 2010, the situation of the market has been that installers and sub distributors have been constantly urging goods, and manufacturers have been processing and rushing production. However, from the end of 2010, the company began to have inventory accumulation

however, due to the hot market last year, most photovoltaic manufacturers in the world expanded their production capacity on a large scale, forming a real situation of "supply far exceeds demand" within a certain period of time

according to the survey and analysis of several international photovoltaic consulting companies, the global solar cell production capacity will increase by 80% to 50 GW this year, while the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be the same as last year, about 21 GW

last year, the price of photovoltaic modules showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising, and has been maintained at 1 Euro/watt, and at the beginning of this year, the price began to turn around and plummeted. According to the survey released by the industry station energytrend on June 1, the average transaction price of photovoltaic cells has fallen below $0.9 per watt, as low as $0.8 per watt, and the pressure of downstream manufacturers to reduce prices has not stopped. At the beginning of March, with the change of photovoltaic subsidy policy that each batch of reinforcement in Italy should be composed of the same brand, the same furnace number, the same specification and the same delivery state, some Chinese photovoltaic module manufacturers' products arriving in Europe were collectively returned by European customers, and were required to reduce the price by more than 30%

insiders believe that the market competition among enterprises in the industry will inevitably intensify in 2011, and the price war will be its main means of expression, and the industry reshuffle is inevitable

overcapacity is exactly what leading enterprises want.

from leading enterprises to second and third tier enterprises, they all galloped on the road of capacity expansion in 2011. It seems that no one is aware of the harm of overcapacity or is afraid of the risk of investment

however, there is a reasonable annotation of the development law of the industry behind this strange phenomenon. Overcapacity is exactly what the current leading enterprises want, or even deliberately do

comparing the share of the world's top ten photovoltaic manufacturers in the global market in 2005 and 2010, we can find two great changes: first, the market share of the world's top ten photovoltaic enterprises fell rapidly. The top ten photovoltaic enterprises in the world accounted for more than 70% of the market share in 2005, but only 40% in 2010. Second, the difference in market share of the top ten photovoltaic enterprises is also narrowing. In 2005, sharp, the largest photovoltaic enterprise in Japan, accounted for 24% of the world's output, while solarword, the last one, accounted for only 2%. In 2010, firstsolar, the largest enterprise in the world, accounted for about 6% of the market share, and gintech, the last one in Taiwan, accounted for 2.4% of the market share

Wei Qidong, Secretary General of Jiangsu Photovoltaic Industry Association, believes that the self owned laws of the photovoltaic industry have led to the above two adverse changes in the market share of leading enterprises in the industry

on the one hand, the photovoltaic industry is an emerging industry driven by the mainstream demand of the society to reduce environmental pressure with low-carbon energy. Its core technology has been formed in the 1980s. Therefore, there is no technical barrier to enter the industry, especially photovoltaic modules. This industrial feature has caused all kinds of Chinese investors to flock into the photovoltaic industry in recent years, and many enterprises have sprung up

on the other hand, there has been no fundamental breakthrough in the core technology of the industry for many years, and it is difficult to upgrade the product performance among enterprises. At present, crystalline silicon cells are the mainstream products of photovoltaic cell modules. As the most important technical index, the photoelectric conversion rate of the whole industry is between 16% and 18%. When the market is in short supply, the price competition mechanism is weakened, and the leading enterprises lack effective sniping at the development and growth of new enterprises

industry insiders pointed out that leading photovoltaic enterprises such as Wuxi Suntech, Changzhou Trinasolar, Yingli new energy, etc. have professional teams to analyze and predict market changes. They should expect industrial overcapacity this year, but they all wantonly expanded their capacity last year. It can be seen that, on the one hand, leading enterprises in the industry are ready to take advantage of overcapacity to fight a price war. On the other hand, the intensified competition under overcapacity is more conducive to leading enterprises to give full play to their advantageous factors such as brand and after-sales

many domestic reports have confirmed that the current photovoltaic trough has brought a fatal blow to the second and third tier photovoltaic enterprises. Yingli group is one of the leaders in the photovoltaic industry. Wang Yiyu, the group's Chief Strategic Officer, recently said in the media that "the market was so good last year that small companies can only be sold when large companies can't sell." Although the overall supply of photovoltaic market this year exceeds the demand, if the share of small companies is removed from the total market supply, the manufacturers of large brands will still supply less than demand for the market